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Why Obama Will Win Re-election in 2012 April 19, 2011

Posted by marchooks in Politics.
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Lately, with the political climate heating up, a lot of people have been wondering whether Barack Obama will have a second term as President of the United States of America. Well, I always answer yes. The preponderance of evidence suggests that he will in fact be re-elected. To cut through all the partisan myths and lies I plan to lay out several reasons why he will be the President through 2016.

Number 1: He’s won before

He’s Barack Obama. This is the man who’s poetic speeches swept the country in 2008. The nation seemed crazed about him as a candidate like none other since John F. Kennedy. He was young, good looking and spoke of a nation most of us had given up on during the Bush years. In 2012, he’ll be making those speeches again. And it will be hard for much of the nation to forget why we elected him in the first place, no matter what facts get thrown into the conversation.

Number 2: His Team

David Plouffe is the best there is. He took a candidate known mostly for a great speech and turned him into a viable option for President. He handled holes in Obama’s resume like inexperience better than anyone expected. Most importantly though, he developed unconventional strategies that took down both Hilary Clinton and John McCain. In the primaries, he made Hilary Clinton’s team seem like bumbling idiots. For Super Tuesday, he worked out a plan that basically kept Obama afloat and developed a far reaching future plan that eventually knocked her out. If you don’t remember, Clinton and Obama were basically neck and neck after Super Tuesday. Clinton’s team predicted that would be their death null so they didn’t put much thought into states after that. Plouffe realized that this is where they could gain a sizeable lead and take home the victory. In the general election, Plouffe designed a plan that would keep McCain on his toes and defending his home turf instead of making inroads on the “leaning blue” states. This allowed Obama to win states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Mexico and many others. The plan was to not rely so heavily on Ohio and Florida like previous unsucessful democrats did (i.e Gore and Kerry). These strategies are one of the biggest reasons Obama is President today.

Number 3: Money

Obama is gifted in one thing above all. Getting people to cough up large sums of money. Through his outreach to the internet community, he broke multiple records for donations. In September 2008 he raised a staggering $150 million. He may not have the same kind of donors as before but I assure you, he will raise a ton of money.

Number 4: The Economy Stupid!

The economy is steadily improving. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was puttering along when Obama was elected, on the heals of a banking crisis, American car companies near failure and an ever dropping unemployment rate. The future seemed bleek. But throughout his Administration, Obama has improved the economy slowly. The unemployment rate is back to what is was during the end of the Bush Presidency and the DJIA has gone from 8500 to over 12000. This upward trend will only get better as the election draws near. Obama will tout that he brought us from doom and gloom to hope and progress.

Number 5: A House divided

The GOP is in two pieces right now. The Tea Party and everyone else. Polls are done that a large amount of Republicans in Southern states believe that Obama was not born here. Some believe that we should cut taxes to an all time modern day low. Taxes so low that the government would not be sustainable. This far right of the party can run this party right into the ground. Just like it almost did for the Democrats in 2004.

Number 6: Who’s going against him?

In years past, The Republican party seemed to have a guy waiting in the wings. Bush I then Bob Dole then Bush II and McCain after that. That’s the way it was run. Now in 2012, there is no apparent front runner. Palin has dropped in the polls because that hokey “I love America” thing only lasts so long before people ask for real answers. Palin has none. Romney, who is in my mind the front runner, has problems connecting because his Universal Health Care plan in Massachusetts and his religion. Getting through the GOP primaries is hell. You have to be so conservative that you risk alienating the general population. Right now, according to some polls, Donald Trump is in the lead. This shows exactly what is wrong. The GOP is looking for a hero. Someone they could rally behind to beat the “evil Obama”. Instead they will get a bunch of guys that couldn’t be McCain in the last primary and a reality TV host.

There are just six reasons that Obama will win re-election in 2012. I could have inundated you with more facts and figures but I didn’t want to flood the senses. I will dig deeper with future posts but there is a little to go over. If you disagree with the opinions I have given, please feel free to tell me.

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Comments»

1. ChuckPlunk - April 20, 2011

umm, looking at the map I just don’t see it. Your right it’s probably Romney. He’s a solid candidate and that will do.
Reasons 1 and 2 are old news. Obama bamboozled people and lied using flowery rhetoric. It’s possible that will work again, but not likely.
Reason 3: Romney will raise a lot of money too.
Reason 4: This economy isn’t anything to run on. Worse, Obama’s effect on it has been negative.
The BIG Reason: The Debt/deficit is out of control. Obama isn’t serious about fixing it. Worse, he can’t be serious about it because his party won’t let him and he caused more of the problem than any other person alive.
Reason 5: The GOP isn’t divided. The TEA ‘party’ is really just a manifestation of a group we used to call taxpayers back when they didn’t do anything to prevent their income from being confiscated. They are a bonus, not a minus.
Reason 6: Romney care isn’t a big deal in the general election. What is Obama going to say? “Mitt did something at the state level to address problems with health care. It was a constitutional act. I tried to do something similar at the federal level, only I violated the constitution.”

Romney is more qualified than Obama (a sitting president). A challenger has never been so overwhelmingly more capable than an incumbent president.

BIG reason 2: The map looks bad. The upper Midwest or “Big 10” / rust belt states swung HARD against the democrat party. Wisconsin, Indiana, and Ohio are going RED with any decent candidate. Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Minnesota look 50/50 or better, regardless of how they go, a lot of resources will need to be spent there to hold them.

VP Reason: The GOP has the best bench of VP candidates you could possibly imagine. An intriguing possibility is Marco Rubio. At the time of the election he will have as much or more experience than Obama, which is fun to point out at every opportunity. He is more inspirational than Obama and I think he alters the map. Good Luck winning Florida, Colorado, and New Mexico with Rubio on the ticket.

chuck plunk - January 13, 2012

Boy, I do make good comments.


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